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January 5th, 2021 (Tuesday)

 

On Monday, the number of confirmed new COVID19 cases in the United States soared to a record level of around 330,000. The number of confirmed cases of the global new COVID19 epidemic reached 80.37 million. The more easily spread variant strain may exacerbate the deterioration of the epidemic, and the new COVID19 epidemic has had a great impact on the economies of various countries. The surge in global new crown cases has clouded the prospects for economic recovery, and the US stock market has set its worst start to the new year since 2016.

The United States is currently suffering from the epidemic, and the means available to the ruling party have been reduced. The U.S. Treasury Department has signed multiple stimulus plans. The Federal has only continued to purchase debt when the interest rate is zero, and only negative interest rates are left. Even if the Federal Reserve and the US fiscal easing drive employment and inflation together, the short-term stimulus to the economy will pave the way for the long-term dollar weakness.

With the settlement of Brexit, investors are getting closer to the prospects of the British economy. However, the emergence of the new COVID19 mutation and the large number of people in London fled, which will inevitably cause the virus spread in European , the epidemic will intensify, and the lockdown measures may still be continued and upgraded , Which intensified investment concerns and put further pressure on non-US currencies. The rise in investor risk aversion will boost the dollar.

Technical aspects:

After the pound hit a new high yesterday, it went all the way down, and the middle black was recorded at the daily level. The rising trend of the major cycle level has not changed, but the daily level has a callback demand. Waiting for the rebound high is mainly short selling. The short-term rebound did not break new highs and continues to be bearish. If it breaks above yesterday’s high, it should turn long.

Long-term strategy: activists buy long near 1.35800, stop loss near 1.35500, target near 1.36600-1.36300 (partially lighten up, leave some protection to see if it can break new highs.)

Short term strategy: After waiting for the pound to rebound, give a signal to go short. Go short near 1.36500, stop loss at 1.37000, target near 1.35000

Yesterday, the euro went wide and fluctuated. The Asian and European markets climbed all the way, and gradually retreated in the American market. The short-term uptrend remains strong, with strong support below. Focus on the 1.23100 high. The long momentum of the daily line level gradually decreases. The hourly level is currently dominated by triangular shocks.

Long-term strategy: Activist do more near 1.22730, stop loss near 1.22500, target near 1.23150

Short-term strategy: short near 1.23100, stop loss near 1.23300. target near 1.22300

The U.S. dollar fell further against the Swiss franc, recording new lows, and the long momentum was extremely weak, which made it difficult to change the weak trend. Short-term level rebound is weak after further decline, the main trend is still mainly short. If it doesn’t break near 0.87850, you’ll see a rebound.

Short-term strategy: Go short near 0.88030 for activist, stop loss near 0.88230, target near 0.87500. (If the low point is not broken, protection is required)

The above strategy is for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!

 

 

Foreign exchange strategy (Spark Global) by Aine

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